Alan Brugler is the President of Brugler Marketing & Management, and the primary analyst and advisor. He grew up on a dairy farm in Northeast Ohio still operated by his family.
Alan is an Honors graduate of The Ohio State University, with a Master of Science degree, and 40 years of commodity market experience. He served as Director of Research and editor of DTN AgDaily for 10 years, writing an estimated 10,000 marketing columns before starting Brugler Marketing & Management LLC in 2002. Brugler Marketing provides three times daily market news and insights to a large number of US agribusiness web sites and operates a consulting division with farmer clients in 17 states and internationally under the Ag Marketing Professional banner.
Alan has extensive contacts in the US and international ag industry. He has been a frequent guest instructor for the Texas and Minnesota Master Marketer programs, and the Kansas State International Grains (IGP) program. He has conducted more than 1300 seminars, keynotes and presentations for farm and commodity trading audiences ranging from local workshops to national conventions. Alan is a key speaker and resource for Ag Marketing Strategy Groups. He is a Consulting Analyst for DTN. He writes the popular weekly Market Watch blog for Farm Journal’s AgWeb.com site. He also appears on a regular basis as a guest analyst for Farm Journal’s US Farm Report and AgDay.
World Agriculture: Lessons from Ukraine and China
The Russian invasion of Ukraine has caused significant market disruptions for economies around the world. Global efforts toward free trade over several decades created efficiencies and prosperity, but also vulnerabilities that were first highlighted in the US/China tariff war, but have become even more obvious with the interruptions of food, energy and capital flows arising from the Ukraine invasion.
Alan Brugler urges the audience to ignore the headlines, smokescreens, and politics and view the situation as a military person or business analyst would. In segments such as Intelligence Briefing, Tactics, Conditioning, and Logistics Alan provides background on the issues, looks at the classic but often-overlooked negotiating tactics being employed, and provides insight into the economic effects of trade disruptions, sanctions, and tariffs as taxes on both buyers and sellers.
The segment ends with some practical suggestions from the veteran advisor on managing personal and business investment, commodity sales, and input purchases in an unstable market environment.
Subtopics within the presentation – not all will be covered depending on time available or audience composition:
- When free trade isn’t free
- State-sponsored capitalism
- The world as a balloon – supply and demand don’t leave the planet, they move around
- Basic Cold War Concepts being revived —signaling, proxy wars, bloc politics
- Basic negotiating tactics -The Red Herring, Good Guy/Bad Guy, The Withdrawn Offer, and Others
- Lessons China might draw from Russia/Ukraine
- What happens to US agriculture if China acts on its Taiwan takeover plans?
- Commodity Marketing strategy and tactics amid the uncertainty
THE AG INFLATION PLAYBOOK
A classic definition of inflation is “Too Much Money Chasing Too Few Goods”. Alan begins by looking at the sources of too much money, and when the supply might dry up. Then he looks at some of the current reasons for too few goods, whether fertilizer, machinery parts, or truck freight. Some other components of the presentation include:
- Different measures of inflation and which are of most concern
- How do Argentine farmers and agribusinesses cope with 40% inflation?
- The 1980s and why things aren’t the same now
- Where Does the Strength of the Dollar Fit Into The Equation?
- Beware the Margin Squeeze
- Survival tactics for commodity producers, ag lenders, and agribusinesses
- Long-term contracts —good or bad?
- What about land prices? Will they ever come back down?
SHORT CROPS HAVE LONG TAILS
In this presentation, Alan looks at some of the root causes for the recent 10-year highs in ag commodity prices, the record high prices for farmland, and rapidly rising input costs.
The 2022 bull markets in wheat, corn, and soybeans are compared to previous bull markets in the 1980s, 1990s, and the 2008-2012 period.
Rapid advances in the prices of an asset class often have multiple components, whether ag commodities, stocks, or cryptocurrencies. How and when will some of these drivers reverse course?
What goes up must come down. Markets are mean reverting. These are well-known axioms, but how do you apply them to the real world?
How and When Do High Prices Cure High Prices? When do we go into the long tail of declining prices?
SMARTER PRICE RISK MANAGEMENT
Alan has developed educational modules to mix and match for a wide variety of audiences, from his basic Selling Tools Formulas© and Three Buckets Strategy© components to futures and basis strategies and sophisticated ag options spreads. In this presentation, the audience is first introduced to the amount of income exposure they will typically face due solely to market price movement over time. This exposure is typically underestimated by all parts of the industry. This is tied into break-evens and a “how can we do it better?” challenge. Fundamental, technical and quantitative analysis methods are introduced as appropriate including his proprietary Tech-Fundamental Forecasts and Price & Probability models.